Theories and Indicators of Change: Concepts and Primers for Conflict Management and Mitigation

This guide, written by Eileen Babbitt, Diana Chigas and Robert Wilkinson for USAID, provides detailed guidance on using theories of change,  with a particular emphasis on conflict management and mitigation.

Excerpt

"As a development practitioner, the programs you design are intended to improve the conditions (economic, political, social, environmental, etc.) in a given context. As such, they will hopefully change how institutions operate/are structured and the way people think or act such that these improvements take place and are sustained. As a practitioner, you draw upon your experience and that of others to create ways to catalyze or facilitate such changes. In doing so, you are making explicit, or sometimes implicit, assumptions about how the change will come about, i.e., which activities will function in which ways to create the desired outcome.

“A theory of change explains why we think certain actions will produce desired change in a given context.” It is intended to make all of our implicit assumptions more explicit, in order to (1) clarify which drivers of violent conflict we are addressing; (2) state clearly what the intended outcome of programs will be; and (3) fully articulate how and why the program will address the drivers of conflict and achieve its intended outcomes. (Babbitt, Chigas & Wilkinson, 2013)

Contents

  • Overview: Working with Theories of Change 1
    • Defining theories of change and their relevance 1
    • Steps in constructing a theory of change 5
  • Common Theories of Change in Conflict Management and Mitigation: Matrix and Primers 13
    • Introducing the THINC matrix and primers 13
    • CMM theories of change (THINC) matrix 20
    • Additional resources on theories of change 26
  • Annex 1: Theories and Indicators of Change Primers 29
  • Annex 2: Assessing Program Strategies and Theories of Change Using the RPP Matrix 105

Sources

Babbitt, E., Chigas, D., & Wilkinson, R. USAID, (2013). Theories and indicators of change concepts and primers for conflict management and mitigation. Retrieved from website: https://dec.usaid.gov/dec/content/GetDoc.axd?ctID=ODVhZjk4NWQtM2YyMi00YjRmLTkxNjktZTcxMjM2NDBmY2Uy&rID=MzMzNDI3&pID=NTYw&attchmnt=VHJ1ZQ==&rdp=ZmFsc2U=