Theories of change and indicator development in conflict management and mitigation

This guide, written by Susan Allen Nan with Mary Mulvihill for USAID, provides a detailed discussion of the use of theories of change in conflict mitigation focusing on the role they can play in improved program design and implementation.

Excerpt

"As applied to the conflict field, theories of change refer to the assumed connections between various actions and the result of reducing conflict or building peace. For example, one of the most popular conflict mitigation strategies entails bringing representatives of belligerent groups together to interact in a safe space. The expectation is that the interactions will put a human face on the 'other', foster trust, and eventually lead to the reduction of tensions. This strategy relies on a theory of change known as the contact hypothesis that can be stated as: 'If key actors from belligerent groups are given the opportunity to interact, then they will better understand and appreciate one another, be better able to work with one another, and prefer to resolve conflicts peacefully.'" (Allen Nan, 2010)

Contents

  • What are Theories of Change? 1
  • Theories of Change in Conflict Management and Mitigation 2
  • Distinguishing Conflict Assessment and Theory of Change in Program Design,
  • Implementation and Evaluation 4
  • Indicators of Change 7
  • Theories of Change Indicator Development Workshop (December 2009) 8
  • Recommended Next Steps for Theories of Change Initiatives 10

Sources

Allen Nan, S. USAID, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance. (2010). Theories of change and indicator development in conflict management and mitigation. Retrieved from website: http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADS460.pdf