Check Results Match a Statistical Model

Program staff may develop a statistical model as part of the project theory design. Statistical models can be useful tools to predict elements of the program:

  • Cost
  • Time
  • Comparison between groups

Example

The shortage of registered nurses in the United States of America is a well documented phenomenon. There are many programs aimed at understanding the reasons less people are not going into nursing. One nursing project developed a statistical model that provided a revised forecast of the nursing shortage. The model showed that although there was a marked decline in the number of people entering nursing in their early to mid-twenties, there were large numbers of people becoming nurses in their later twenties and early thirties.

The model led to a series of policy recommendations including:

  • encouraging graduates to consider a nursing career
  • increasing the number of qualified nursing education staff
  • improving the ergonomic workplace environment for the larger cohort of older nurses

The model will also be useful during the evaluation stage - was the revised forecast accurate? If so, were the planned interventions appropriate? If not, why? 

Source: Auerbach, Buerhaus & Staiger (2007)

Advice

Advice for CHOOSING this option (tips and traps)

  • Before choosing this option identify which or if any of the elements of the program are useful to test using statistical models.

Advice for USING this option (tips and traps)

  • Use the statistical model that was developed as part of the program theory.
  • Ensure the evaluation Terms of Reference (TOR) includes specifications for statistical skills.

Resources

Example

Sources

Updated: 14th January 2014 - 1:51am

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