Causal pathways
A causal pathways perspective on evaluation focuses on understanding how, why, and under what conditions change happens or has happened.
It is used to understand the interconnected chains of causal links that lead to a range of outcomes and impacts. These causal pathways are likely to involve multiple actors, contributing factors, events, and actions, not only the activities associated with the program, project, or policy being evaluated or its stated objectives.
Overview
Rather than being a specific approach, causal pathways evaluation might be best understood as a perspective on evaluation, which can draw on a combination of existing evaluation approaches, processes and methods. It uses a range of types of evidence, especially participant voices and narratives, and emphasises the use of participatory processes.
Causal pathways evaluation, as understood by the Causal Pathways Initiative, can be distinguished by the following features:
- Addressing power and inclusion: Seeking to use inclusive and empowering processes, from design through to the use of findings, that respect, support, and prioritise the values and perspectives of people who are directly affected by a program, system and/or contexts, with particular attention to usually excluded interests.
- Valuing actors’ narratives: Paying serious attention to how people who are directly affected by a program, system, or context understand how changes have or have not come about and how they value those changes. Actors can include participants, on-the-ground program staff, implementing partners, and others contributing to or impacted by changes.
- Articulating explicit causal pathways: Identifying intermediate outcomes, causal mechanisms, non-linear, plural, and sometimes contested pathways to change, and the interactions between factors that influence whether change occurs.
- Paying attention to a range of outcomes and impacts, both positive and negative: Not only explicitly intended outcomes and impacts.
- Understanding contextual variation: Identifying and describing differences in how interventions work in different contexts and for different people. Relevant contextual factors may include previous or concurrent interventions, power relationships, and socio-economic and demographic characteristics.
- Using an iterative, bricolage approach to evaluation design: Combining different methods and approaches to address specific questions and ensure rigour and using data and learning to inform subsequent data collection and analysis.
- Drawing on a range of causal inference strategies: Supporting causal inference in complex systems through a range of causal inference strategies.
- Taking a complexity-appropriate approach to evaluation quality and rigour: Identifying and working with appropriate quality criteria such as reasoning, credibility, responsiveness, utilisation, and transferability.
The causal pathways perspective on evaluation builds on the concepts of ‘causal pathways’, ‘outcome pathways’ and ‘impact pathways’ which have been used in various sectors to articulate the causal chains that can lead to particular outcomes and impacts. These have been used to articulate and empirically investigate causal chains from interventions to results (either intended or unintended) and from different contributory factors that interact to generate different results (both positive and negative).
The importance of power and inclusion in processes and analysis
The causal pathways perspective pays explicit attention to power and inclusion in relation to understanding causal pathways and undertaking evaluation. Power dynamics that influence change can involve different forms of power held by different types of actors. Visible forms of power can be held by formal position holders and institutions and enshrined in rules and regulations. Hidden power allows actors to set agendas behind the scenes and so decide on who can or cannot be part of decision-making. Invisible forms of power work at the psychosocial realm, are derived from relationships, customs, traditions, rules, regulations, and practices and determine who can and who cannot meaningfully engage.
A causal pathways perspective aims to understand the power dynamics that influence how and whether change occurs. It includes the perspectives and experiences of traditionally under-represented interests, including natural as well as human systems. This builds a deeper understanding of the factors generating or inhibiting changes along causal pathways, including changes in mindsets, beliefs and practices. Using inclusive and empowering processes that respect, support and prioritize the activities and voices of local actors enhances the quality of the evaluation and supports the use of evaluation findings.
Related evaluation approaches, methods, and processes
Causal pathways evaluations can draw on a range of approaches, methods and processes to develop an overall design. The following list shows some relevant approaches and methods, with links to more detailed information.
Approaches
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Develop a design for the evaluation
Determine what constitutes high quality evaluation
Understand causes
Resources
The Causal Pathways Initiative has produced and curated a number of resources.
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The Causal Pathways Initiative was established to connect experiences and build insights about using causal pathways analysis, especially with complex systems change interventions.
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Resource
- 10 years of outcome mapping
- 20 years of outcome mapping: Evolving practices for transformative change
- A critical review of applications in QCA and fuzzy-set analysis and a ‘toolbox’ of proven solutions to frequently encountered problems
- A guide to assessing needs
- A guiding framework for needs assessment evaluations to embed digital platforms in partnership with Indigenous communities
- An introduction to applied data analysis with qualitative comparative analysis
- Assessing rural transformations: Piloting a qualitative impact protocol in Malawi and Ethiopia
- Assessing the contribution to market system change of the private enterprise programme Ethiopia
- Attributing development impact: The qualitative impact protocol (QuIP) case book
- Bath social & developmental research ltd. (BSDR) website
- Broadening the range of designs and methods for impact evaluations
- Budgeting for developmental evaluation (DE)
- Case study: QuIP & RCT to evaluate a cash transfer and gender training programme in Malawi
- Case study: Using QuIP to evaluate Tearfund’s church and community transformation programme
- Cases in outcome harvesting
- Causal Pathways 2023 Symposium and 2024 introductory sessions
- Causal Pathways breakout session: Process tracing
- Causal Pathways introductory session: Causal link monitoring
- Causal Pathways introductory session: Causal mapping
- Causal Pathways introductory session: Contribution analysis
- Causal Pathways introductory session: How do I mix and combine methods?
- Causal Pathways introductory session: Outcome harvesting for exploring causal pathways
- Causal Pathways introductory session: Qualitative Impact Protocol (QuIP)
- Causal Pathways introductory session: Realist evaluation
- Causal Pathways introductory session: The inclusive rigour framework
- Causal link monitoring brief
- Causal map app
- Causal pathways: A shared understanding
- Causality assessment for landscape interventions (CALI)
- Clearing the fog: New tools for improving the credibility of impact claims
- Comparing QuIP with thirty other approaches to impact evaluation
- Compasss: Comparative methods for systematic cross-case analysis
- Contribution analysis and estimating the size of effects: Can we reconcile the possible with the impossible?
- Contribution analysis for adaptive management
- Contribution analysis in policy work: Assessing advocacy’s influence
- Contribution analysis: A promising method for assessing advocacy's impact
- Contribution analysis: An approach to exploring cause and effect
- Cosecha de alcances
- Cracking causality in complex policy contexts
- Designing contribution analysis of participatory programming to tackle the worst forms of child labour
- Discussion note: Complexity aware monitoring
- Does our theory match your theory? Theories of change and causal maps in Ghana
- Finding and using causal hotspots: A practice in the making
- From narrative text to causal maps: QuIP analysis and visualisation
- Guia de avaliação de impacto de Cabo Verde
- How to manage an evaluation and disseminate its results
- Impact evaluability toolkit
- Introduction: Contribution, causality, context, and contingency when evaluating inclusive business programmes
- Joint Committee on Standards for Educational Evaluation (JCSEE) program evaluation standards
- Learning through and about contribution analysis for impact evaluation
- Lost causal: Debunking myths about causal analysis in philanthropy
- Making causal pathways visible amid complexity
- Making rigorous causal claims in a real-life context: Has research contributed to sustainable forest management?
- Monitoring and evaluation for thinking and working politically
- Outcome Mapping Learning Community
- Outcome harvesting
- Outcome mapping + equity, gender, and social justice
- Outcome mapping: A method for tracking behavioural changes in development programs
- Outcome mapping: Building learning and reflection into development programs
- Power analysis briefing: Review of tools and methods
- Power analysis: A practical guide
- Process tracing and Bayesian updating for impact evaluation
- Process tracing and contribution analysis: A combined approach to generative causal inference for impact evaluation
- Process tracing as a practical evaluation method: Comparative learning from six evaluations
- QuIP and the Yin/Yang of Quant and Qual: How to navigate QuIP visualisations
- QuIP in action: Save the Children case study
- QuIP used as part of an evaluation of the impact of the UK Government Tampon Tax Fund (TTF)
- QuIP: Understanding clients through in-depth interviews
- Qualitative impact assessment protocol (QuIP)
- Quick guide to power analysis
- Realist impact evaluation: An introduction
- Realistic evaluation bloodlines
- Rethinking rigour to embrace complexity in peacebuilding evaluation
- Retrospective 'outcome harvesting': Generating robust insights
- Set-theoretic methods for the social sciences: A guide to qualitative comparative analysis
- Straws-in-the-wind, hoops and smoking guns: What can process tracing offer to impact evaluation?
- The 'Most Significant Change' technique - A guide to its use
- The art and craft of bricolage in evaluation
- The book of why: The new science of cause and effect - Book review
- The triviality of measuring ultimate outcomes: Acknowledging the span of direct influence
- Tools and tips for implementing contribution analysis
- Técnica del “Cambio Más Significante” (MSC, por sus siglas en inglés) - Guía para su uso
- Understanding process tracing
- Using qualitative comparative analysis to explore causal links for scaling up investments in renewable energy
- What is qualitative comparative analysis (QCA)?
- モスト・シグニフィカント・チェンジ (MSC)手法
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