This paper from E. Jane Davidson explores the relative strengths and weaknesses of program theory as a tool for inferring causality.
It also "outlines a five-stage approach that makes increased use of inductively built program theories and takes more deliberate account of the varying levels of certainty that are required for evaluative conclusions." (Davidson 20040
- Testing Causal Mechanisms with Thoery-Based Evaluation
- Hunting for Causal Mechanisms
- Options of Inferring Causality
- Causal Traciing: A Five-Stage Process
Davidson, E. J. (2000). Ascertaining causality in theory-based evaluation. In P. J. Rogers, T. A. Hasci, A. Petrosino, & T. A. Huebner (Eds.), Program theory in evaluation challenges and opportunities: New directions for evaluation, 87 (pp. 17-26). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.