Applying adaptive theory of change in fragile and conflict affected settings

This paper discusses adaptive management in fragile settings, highlighting flexible theories of change and real-time evaluations to adjust programs dynamically in response to evolving FCV challenges.

In this paper, Borel, Brett, and Bryld (2021) examine the application of adaptive management principles in fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCV), focusing on poverty, vulnerability, and human rights issues. It discusses how rigid, linear programming fails to address the complex challenges in these environments and introduces adaptive management as a more effective approach. Central to adaptive management is the adaptable theory of change (ToC), which allows for flexible, real-time adjustments based on new information. The resource is especially relevant to M&E practitioners seeking to use MEL to enhance program responsiveness in FCV contexts.

Key features

This resource highlights several key aspects of adaptive management and its application in FCV settings, with a focus on evolving approaches and real-time learning. It also presents practical tools to support adaptive theory of change, enabling M&E practitioners to remain responsive to dynamic environments:

• Adaptable theory of change (ToC): Emphasises the need for a ToC that evolves over time, regularly updated to reflect new challenges or changes in the context. This is crucial for maintaining the relevance and effectiveness of programmes in unstable environments.
• Political economy analysis (PEA) and action research: These tools enable adaptability by providing diagnostic and participatory feedback, helping practitioners adjust programmes based on ongoing analysis of political, social, and economic factors.
• Real-time and ex-post evaluations: Discusses the importance of capturing both formal and informal changes made during implementation, ensuring that adaptive management processes are reflected in evaluations. This helps track shifts in strategy and context over time.
• Double loop learning: Expands on traditional learning cycles by integrating systematic reflection on assumptions, context variables, and the theory of change. This tool is especially useful in FCV settings where deeper insights beyond immediate events are often needed.
• Most significant change: A participatory method for gathering and analysing change stories from stakeholders. It is particularly effective where desired outcomes cannot be predicted in advance, allowing for a flexible evaluation of impacts.
• Contribution analysis: A theory-based approach used to assess a programme’s contribution to observed changes. It builds evidence-based narratives of impact without seeking definitive proof, making it valuable in FCV settings where traditional attribution is challenging.
• Outcome harvesting: Ideal for capturing both intended and unintended outcomes without relying on pre-set indicators. This tool is effective in complex environments where specific activities and results cannot be predetermined.
• Outcome mapping: Breaks down the theory of change to monitor immediate, foundational changes that contribute to longer-term transformative outcomes. Its adaptability makes it useful across various FCV contexts, allowing for realistic assessments of progress.

How would you use the resource?

This resource is particularly useful for M&E practitioners who need to implement adaptive theory of change (ToC) models in dynamic and unpredictable FCV settings. It highlights the need for regularly updating ToCs to reflect new challenges and shifts in context, ensuring that programs remain relevant and effective. Practical tools include political economy analysis (PEA) and action research, which offer ongoing diagnostic feedback, and real-time evaluations that help track changes during implementation. Double-loop learning is also recommended, allowing practitioners to reflect on and adjust deeper assumptions in their ToCs. The resource supports outcome-focused tools like outcome harvesting and contribution analysis to capture intended and unintended changes, even where formal indicators are lacking. These methods allow practitioners to adjust and refine interventions as contexts evolve, ensuring that programs stay responsive to emerging realities.

Why are we recommending it?

This resource stands out because of its focus on adaptability and real-time learning, which are crucial for working in FCV contexts. It provides practical, actionable guidance for applying ToC in settings where traditional methods often fail due to unpredictability and instability.