Practical approaches to theories of change in conflict, security, and justice programmes - part II: Using theories of change in monitoring and evaluation

This guide offers practical advice for using theories of change in the monitoring and evaluation stages of conflict, security, and justice programmes.

It emphasizes testing assumptions, adjusting strategies, and assessing causal linkages between inputs and outcomes.

This guidance document by Corlazzoli & White (2013a) discusses the role and application of theories of change (ToC) in monitoring and evaluating programmes within conflict, security, and justice contexts. It is aimed at helping practitioners articulate, refine, and effectively implement ToCs during all stages of a programme cycle. The resource covers challenges in applying ToC frameworks, practical steps for integrating ToCs into monitoring and evaluation, and the limitations of ToCs in non-linear and unpredictable environments, such as those faced in fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Key features

• Theories of change in monitoring: The guide outlines how ToCs can provide feedback during monitoring to check if a programme is on track to achieve its desired changes. It emphasises the importance of continuously testing assumptions and revising strategies based on new data, particularly in complex environments.
• Evaluation using theories of change: It provides guidance on how ToCs can be used in evaluations to ask critical questions about the causal linkages between programme inputs and outcomes. Evaluators are encouraged to scrutinise assumptions and identify whether the programme design or implementation needs improvement based on the ToC.
• Approaches to evaluation: This section of the guide discusses various approaches to evaluating programmes using theories of change, including Most Significant Change, Developmental Evaluation, Outcome Mapping, and Impact Evaluation. Each approach offers a unique way of assessing complex interventions.
• Making theories of change explicit: The guide stresses that ToCs should be clearly articulated early in the programme cycle, even though they can be developed or refined at any stage. Clear ToCs help guide M&E by defining what success looks like and which assumptions need to be monitored.
• Limitations and challenges: The document acknowledges the limitations of ToCs, such as the risk of oversimplification and linear thinking in complex, non-linear environments. It suggests ways to overcome these challenges, such as using ToCs alongside other evaluative tools and being open to revising theories as projects evolve.

How would you use the resource?

This resource is particularly useful for M&E practitioners working in FCV contexts who want to apply ToC in a structured and adaptive way. It offers practical strategies for integrating ToCs into M&E frameworks at different stages of a project, ensuring that programmes remain responsive to real-world challenges. For example, practitioners can use the guidelines on baseline establishment and mid-term evaluations to adapt their ToCs in response to emerging data. The resource also highlights how to overcome common limitations, such as simplifying non-linear processes and the importance of continuous testing of assumptions.

Why are we recommending it?

This resource provides valuable insights into using ToCs effectively throughout the M&E process in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Its focus on critical analysis of assumptions and flexible adaptation of ToCs ensures that programmes remain relevant and effective in dynamic environments.