Under challenging conditions: Development cooperation in fragile states

This report presents guidance on strategy development, implementation, and evaluation of programmes in fragile contexts. It draws on the findings of the evaluation and analysis of German development cooperation in fragile states in recent years.

The report is structured around three phases of the policy cycle: strategic planning and steering, implementation, and evaluation of development cooperation measures. Within each section, the report combines evaluation findings with articles written by experts from academia and development practice.

This resource covers the full policy cycle for development cooperation in fragile states, including:

• Strategic planning: Guidance on creating context-sensitive strategies and integrating the humanitarian-development-peace nexus.
• Implementation: Practical principles for delivering programmes in challenging environments.
• Evaluation: Methods for assessing interventions under fragile conditions.

It also includes case studies and contributions from experts in development practice and research, offering a variety of perspectives and practical examples.

The section on evaluation provides practical guidance for evaluating development interventions in fragile and conflict-affected (FCV) contexts, recognising the unique challenges such as data scarcity, ethical risks, and rapidly changing conditions. It advocates for mixed-method approaches that combine qualitative insights with quantitative data, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of programme impacts despite limited resources. Participatory methods are highlighted as a way to build trust and ensure evaluations are contextually relevant, while conflict-sensitive approaches are essential to avoid exacerbating local tensions. The use of proxy indicators and remote monitoring tools, such as mobile surveys and satellite data, is suggested to overcome access challenges in insecure areas.

Flexibility is a key principle, allowing evaluations to adapt to shifting circumstances or unexpected events. The report encourages iterative evaluation designs that provide ongoing feedback during implementation, supporting real-time learning and decision-making.

Content review note:

The article "Rigorous evidence on building peaceful societies" in this publication appears to assume that rigorous impact evaluation methods require a counterfactual.

However, it should be noted that impact evaluation can be defined in a number of ways, with more recent advances in methodology and approaches demonstrating that rigorous evaluation can be achieved in many different ways. To further understand this topic you might like to read our Impact Evaluation theme page and Causal Pathways content.