Process tracing

Process tracing is a case-based approach to causal inference which focuses on the use of clues within a case (causal-process observations, CPOs) to adjudicate between alternative possible explanations. 

Process tracing involves four types of causal tests -

  • 'straw in the wind', which lends support for an explanation without definitively ruling it in or out,
  • 'hoop', failed when examination of a case shows the presence of a necessary causal condition,when the outcome of interest is not present. Common hoop conditions are more persuasive than uncommon ones
  • 'smoking gun', passed when examination of a case shows the presence of a sufficient causal condition. Uncommon smoking gun conditions are more persuasive than common ones
  • 'doubly definitive' passed when examination of a case shows that a condition is both necessary and sufficient support for the explanation. These tend to be rare.

Process tracing can be used both to see if results are consistent with the program theory (theory of change) and to see if alternative explanations can be ruled out.

Examples

This IIED Brief, Clearing the fog: new tools for improving the credibility of impact claims discusses the use of process tracing in some of IIED's research in Uganda

Resources

  • Process tracing in case study research

    This resource examines some of the philosophy science issues related to process tracing, including the roles of causal effects and causal mechanisms in causal explanation and the logic of process tracing.

  • Understanding process tracing

    This paper, from David Collier, outlines a new framework for carrying out process tracing in order to achieve greater systemisation of qualitative methods.

  • Process tracing: Introduction and exercises

    This document provides an overview of the method of process tracing and a series of examples and exercises to aid in its teaching .

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